Volume I · Gold · Money Research

09 — Gold Today (September 2026): What Still Holds Its Value

The numbers

Figures are from the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends for full-year 2025 and Q1–Q2 2026, the ECB's June 2026 reserves report, IMF COFER Q1 2026, and market reports of early September 2026.

Largest official holders (approximate, 2026): United States ~8,133 t, Germany ~3,350 t, Italy ~2,450 t, France ~2,440 t, Russia ~2,330 t, China ~2,300 t reported (unreported holdings are unknown), India ~880 t and rising, with Poland the largest reported 2025 buyer in the WGC dataset. A notable new buyer is the stablecoin issuer Tether, reported by the ECB as a purchaser of more than 100 tonnes in 2025; the ECB comparison is not a global purchaser ranking. The precise role of that metal in each token reserve arrangement needs issuer-level documentation.

The last four years in one paragraph

Gold traded around $1,800 in 2022 when the US and EU froze Russian central-bank assets. In the World Gold Council's net-demand category for central banks and other official-sector institutions, including some supranational entities and sovereign wealth funds, purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually in 2022–24. Gold's price rose substantially over the following years; that chronology alone cannot assign a single cause or rank the motives of all buyers. WGC full-year 2024, central-banks table; WGC full-year 2024, Notes and Definitions, “Central banks” In the World Gold Council's USD series, the record was $5,405/oz on 29 January 2026. Gold then fell toward $4,000, ended July at $4,027/oz and rebounded to $4,563/oz at end-August. These are dated observations, not a continuous summer price band. The Council discusses momentum, interest rates, the dollar, ETF flows, Asian investors and official-sector demand as interacting factors, with uncertainty about their contributions. WGC July 2026, table 1 and discussion; WGC August 2026, table 1 and discussion.

What still gives gold value

Physical bullion held outright has no issuer liability. Bonds and bank deposits are issuer liabilities; outright bullion is not. Bullion still has price, custody and liquidity risks, and access may depend on where it is stored. The 2022 sanctions episode may have affected some reserve managers, but their motives need country-level evidence.

New mine output is constrained by geology and economics. Annual mining is small relative to the estimated above-ground stock. A simple reserves-to-output division is not a forecast of exhaustion: prices, discoveries and technology change what is economically mineable.

A long, varied history of acceptance. Gold is the Schelling point: many buyers expect future buyers, but acceptance and purchasing power have varied across societies and periods.

Physical demand. Jewellery and technology contribute to annual demand; the share and regional mix vary by period, and physical demand is one source of demand, not a guaranteed price floor.

Regulation. Basel's standardised credit-risk rule assigns a 0% weight only to gold bullion held at the bank or at another bank on an allocated basis to the extent backed by gold-bullion liabilities; it is not a blanket weight for every physical holding. A separate Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) rule assigns physically traded commodities, including gold, an 85% required-stable-funding factor. That factor concerns a bank's funding, not the gold price or the owner's credit exposure. Neither rule makes gold risk-free, automatically eligible for the Liquidity Coverage Ratio's high-quality liquid assets (HQLA), or legally eligible for a particular central bank's reserves. Local implementation must be checked before applying the Basel standard to a bank. Basel CRE20.110; NSF30.31(4); LCR30.40–.47.

Inflation and real rates. Gold tends to rise when real interest rates (bond yields minus inflation) fall or turn negative, because the cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls. Real rates are one influence on its price, alongside other market forces.

What gold does not do today

Gold is not the dominant unit in which contemporary wages, prices and debts are written, nor the usual means of everyday payment. That does not mean it has no monetary role: central banks still hold it as a reserve asset, and some domestic currency designs use it as part of a reserve basket. Zimbabwe's ZiG, introduced in 2024, is described by its central bank as backed by foreign currency and precious metals, mainly gold; the IMF classifies its exchange-rate arrangement as de jure floating and de facto other managed, not a fixed-weight gold standard. Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2024 Monetary Policy Statement; IMF, 2025 exchange-arrangements annex. Physical gold pays no interest and costs money to store; its dollar price can fall substantially over several years.

Why it is still not "the" unit of economy

A fixed gold-conversion promise constrains monetary authorities when gold flows out or redemption is demanded; it does not make bank lending or deposit creation impossible. Gold-standard banks issued liabilities against fractional gold reserves, and credit could expand or contract with lending, confidence and redemption pressure. Federal Reserve History, National Banking Acts describes reserve requirements against both notes and deposits; follow a modern bank loan and payment for the distinct balance sheets. Countries later chose more flexible exchange arrangements for many reasons, including the costs of defending convertibility during crises; neither a metal link nor its absence determines inflation or welfare by itself. The international gold par-value system ended, but official reserve holdings and domestic reserve-basket designs did not. Physical gold is an asset without an issuer's redemption promise; a bank balance or reserve-backed currency is a different kind of claim.

Key takeaways

At end-2025 market prices, gold's 27% share of the ECB's broad official-reserves measure exceeded the euro's 15% and US Treasuries' 22%; the ECB says this was largely a gold-price valuation effect, not evidence by itself of reserve managers selling dollar assets. At a constant end-2023 gold price, gold and the euro would each be about 16% and Treasuries 26%. The IMF's dollar share of foreign-exchange reserves has a different denominator that excludes gold. Gold remains a reserve asset without an issuer's promise, but it is not the unit in which most contemporary wages, prices or debts are stated. ECB, June 2026, chart 7; IMF COFER.